Following AAPEX, bankers and analysts predict an active aftermarket in 2026 [RoundUp]

February 10, 2026

Analysts see resilience in the automotive aftermarket, expect growing consumer demand amid record-high new car prices, and an increased pace of dealmaking

LAS VEGAS – February 10, 2026 – The AAPEX show is a great place to conduct market research. It’s a large show that brings together the $2.3 trillion automotive aftermarket.

Over a few days at the show, analysts and bankers can speak, in person, to every aspect of the market: suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and repair shop owners.

Several attended the last show, held in November of 2025, and published their thoughts in reports and interviews. Below are a few that stood out to us.

1. Harris Williams: auto aftermarket is revving up

“Despite economic uncertainty tied to trade policy, inflationary pressure, and the pace of interest rate reductions, the aftermarket has demonstrated resilience, and its underlying value drivers remain intact.” That’s according to Harris Williams, a global investment bank specializing in M&A, in a quarterly report after attending the AAPEX and SEMA shows in November.

The report notes that the price of new cars, which “surpassed $50,000 for the first time,” along with the rising average age of U.S. vehicles, will drive the industry’s growth. “Categories linked to non-discretionary repair and maintenance are poised to lead the sector’s rebound due to the record-high age of vehicles on the road today,” the report says.

The investment firm also believes the pace of dealmaking will pick up:

“While the auto aftermarket has endured a challenging period, its underlying fundamentals and long-term value drivers remain strong. And with several forces converging to unlock more deal flow, market participants are optimistic about what lies ahead.”

2. Portage Point Partners: M&A Activity Poised to Accelerate in 2026

Todd Cassidy, a managing director with Portage Point Partners, also walked away from AAPEX and SEMA shows with similar conclusions. “Investors and operators are preparing for increased activity as assets reach natural exit timelines and financing markets remain open to quality credits,” he wrote in a note following the shows.

He says investors are seeking three key characteristics in aftermarket businesses:

operational resilience;
diversified suppliers; and
pricing strategies that protect margins.

He also notes that the price of new vehicles is causing many consumers to hold on to their existing vehicles longer: “Suppliers note concerns about deferred maintenance, yet replacement costs far exceed repair alternatives with average new vehicle prices above $50,000.”

3. Morgan Stanley: Retailers are juggling more parts than ever

Morgan Stanley Managing Director Simeon Gutman is an equity analyst who often writes about publicly traded auto parts retailers. For example, we’ve previously cited his research showing the market capitalization of the Big 4 retailers has grown 42% over the last decade.

More recently, he’s noted new challenges for retail inventory. It’s not just that aging U.S vehicles need replacement parts; it’s also the “complexity” and variety of parts retailers must now carry, as he explained to Counterman Magazine:

“More makes, more models, more OEM variations and more specialized parts are flooding the system. Shops expect availability. Drivers expect same-day turnaround. And, the stores that win are the ones closest to the customer with the deepest baskets of coverage.”

In-store inventory has grown 36% since 2019, and it continues to grow, he said. “Distribution centers are getting bigger, more hubs, more mega hubs. They’re adding parts.”

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AAPEX 2026 will be held from November 3–5, 2026, in Las Vegas, NV at The Venetian Expo & Caesars Forum. Complimentary passes are available to the media; email: [email protected].

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